I recently made some league-wide shot probability maps based upon the 2009-10 NHL regular seasons. Each map is of a particular shot type and strength of the shooting team. The strength of the shooting team is whether they were at even strength, on the power play or were shorthanded. The maps are limited to shots taken in the offensive zone. Most of the methodology is the same as what is found in the DIGR paper. I did some non-parametric smoothing using the LOESS function in R. This creates locally smooth maps of the ice. In these maps, I used a slightly smaller span in the LOESS which probably makes them slightly more affected by outliers. As with any spatial mapping, there are ‘edge effects’ primarily due to a some possibly outstanding observations. This can be seen best in the even strength backhand shots map (page 5). I would have a hard time believing that the probability of a backhand along the goal line increases as you move away from the crease.
It is clear that the probability at each location increases from Even Strength to the Power Play. That’s not a surprise. The maps do allow you to get a sense of where the high probability areas are for each type of shot.
Here they are: Shot Probability Maps.