Total Hockey Ratings

Introduction

This page is the home for the Total Hockey Ratings (THoR) of NHL Forwards and Defensemen created by Michael Schuckers and Jim Curro.  THoR is a two-way player rating that accounts for the all of the on-ice action events when a players is on the ice as well as their linemates, their opponents, the current score of the game, and where their shift starts.  Each event is assessed a value according to the chance that it leads to a goal.  THoR uses a statistical model to determine the value of each player’s contribution to the overall outcomes that occur while they are on the ice.   THoR ralings are now wins above replacement (WAR) relative to position which is a difference from the original paper which had difference from average.  Count/Number in the files below is the number of plays that a given players was on the ice.

The original THoR paper can be found here:  Original THoR Paper  though we have made the following changes below to the original paper.

Current THoR Rankings are at the bottom of this page.

News

  • December 20, 2013 We’ve added the fuller model for even strength as well as special teams play.  We refer to these as THoR-Even Strength (THoR-EV) and THoR-All
  • December 11, 2013 We’ve put together a summary of what makes THoR such a good metric: The Case for THoR.
  • May 10, 2013 THoR ratings for the 2011-12 and 2013 seasons are now total contribution only relative to a replacement player.
  • April 30, 2013: The results are now adjusted by position to be wins above replacement at a given position. 
  • April 19, 2013: New Results for games through April 14, 2013
  • March 25, 2013: We have added rink effects for all NHL home rinks.  This factor aims to account for rink to rink biases in the NHL’s RTSS system.
  • March 25, 2013: We have added score effects to the model.  Our approach to score effects is to use a factor that only appears in the model when a team is more than 2 goals ahead.    
  • March 3, 2013: THoR won 2nd Prize in the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Research Paper Competition. 

Current THoR 

Even Strength

THoR EV 2013-14 Season

All Strengths

THoR ALL 2013-14 Season

 

Past EV THoR

THoR EV 12.26.13  – Even Strength 2012-13 season and 2013-14 through 12.20.13

THoR EV 2011-12 Season - Even Strength THoR for 2011-12 

THoR EV 2010-11 Season - Even Strength THoR for 2010-11 

THoR EV 2009-10 Season - Even Strength THoR for 2009-10 

 

Past ALL THoR

THoR ALL 12.26.13 - All plays 2012-13 season and 2013-14 through 12.20.13

THoR ALL 2011-12 Season - All Strength THoR for 2011-12 

THoR ALL 2010-11 Season - All Strength THoR for 2010-11 

THoR ALL 2009-10 Season - All Strength THoR for 2009-10