Posts Tagged ‘ NHL ’

Text Mining and Improving NHL Draft Analytics

Combining performance data (“stats”) and scouting information is the Holy Grail of sports analytics. In this paper, we develop a methodology to combine scouting report information with performance metrics to improve the evaluation of players eligible for the NHL Entry Draft. In this new approach, text-mined data from scouting reports was used to develop variables for out-of-sample prediction. We demonstrate that by adding these variables to performance metrics, we can substantially improve the prediction of future performance. Below is a paper that we (Timo Seppa,  […]



NHL Shootout as Crapshoot

NHL Shootout as Crapshoot

This past October I gave a poster at the Northern California Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Sports (NCSSORS ) entitled Shootout or Crapshoot: An Analysis of the NHL Shootout after Five Years.  That poster can be found here.  (It might be time to have a conference devoted to statistical analysis of hockey.)  For that analysis, I considered all 5711 shootout shots taken during the 2005-6 through the 2009-10 seasons.  The basic gist is that the NHL Shootout is a crapshoot.  Put more statistically,  […]



Turco for Niemi (4 goals for $1.45 million)

Turco for Niemi (4 goals for $1.45 million)

So last week I was at the Joint Statistical Meeting in Vancouver. It was a great conference and I presented some work on  spatial mapping of shot probabilities for shooters and goalies.  My poster was on Monday the day that the Blackhawks signing of Turco was announced.  The spatial probability mapping of the offensive zone for Turco is given below. Red indicates areas where goals are scored at a higher rate than average against him.  Blue indicates areas where goals are scored at lower rates  […]



Adjusted +/-

Adjusted +/-

So the Hockey Analysis Group over on Yahoo has been having a discussion concerning hockey’s plus/minus values and how they can be used.  We, the SSC group and a student, Dennis Lock, have done an analysis that takes the advances the plus/minus idea.  Our premise is that every play should tell us about the players on the ice.  Therefore, we looked at a more general model that goes beyond goals and accounts for every play on the ice and looks at every play from the  […]