The THoR page (http://www.statsportsconsulting.com/thor) has the latest set of Even Strength (EV) and All (EV/PP/PK) ratings for players that appeared in over about 25 games in the past two seasons. What is new here is that we have added a new model for EV and PP and PK to the model to our EV model. The model for all events includes all of the terms in the EV model (see the THoR page) such as Quality of Teammates, Score Effects, and Zone Starts and adds [...]
The THoR page (http://www.statsportsconsulting.com/thor) has the latest set of Even Strength ratings for the top 150 players. I’ll give some commentary below. Since MIT Sloan, we have added rink effects for each rink to the rink effects for shots and a score effect when the score has a differential of 2 or more. The former aims to reduce bias in recording of RTSS events while the latter is indicative of changes of style of play according to the score. We got some good feedback at [...]
A couple weeks ago I made available some work we did on the NHL shootout regarding whether there is an advantage to going first or second in the shootout. This is a postscript to that post.Our analysis found that there was not an advantage to going first. This prompted some interest and some queries. Based on these, I’ve done some additional analysis and I want to share those. First, Bruce McCurdy of the Edmonton Journal wanted to know about whether there was a difference if the shootout [...]
This past Spring, two students of Schuckers did undergraduate honors theses at St. Lawrence analyzing NHL data. Tom Pasquali who is now a graduate student in Statistics at Villanova University focused on faceoffs while another student, Jim Curro (now a graduate student in Statistics at Iowa State), did some work on player ratings. In the NHL faceoff analysis that is linked below, we used primarily Tom’s work but also a portion of Jim’s work. We analyzed over 200,000 faceoffs over three NHL regular seasons (2008-9, [...]
I recently made some league-wide shot probability maps based upon the 2009-10 NHL regular seasons. Each map is of a particular shot type and strength of the shooting team. The strength of the shooting team is whether they were at even strength, on the power play or were shorthanded. The maps are limited to shots taken in the offensive zone. Most of the methodology is the same as what is found in the DIGR paper. I did some non-parametric smoothing using the LOESS function in [...]
Today’s Academic Minute which is a daily audio presentation on faculty research is about our research on the NHL Shootout. Here is the audio link. This is old ground. The conclusions are after the first five years of the NHL Shootout that there is no evidence that any goalie or shooter is significantly different from the average. We presented this work as a poster at the 2010 NCSSORS Conference. This work also appeared in ESPN the Magazine. Link to a blog entry: http://statsportsconsulting.com/2010/12/21/nhl-shootout-as-crapshoot/ Link to [...]
Peter Keating of ESPN the Magazine has a nice write-up about the Defense Independent Goalie Ratings (DIGR) in the latest issues. Article can be found here. Peter does a real nice job of summarizing the DIGR. Original paper for the DIGR can be found at this link.