All entries by this author

Going First in NHL Shootout: A Statistical Analysis

Going First in NHL Shootout: A Statistical Analysis

With the end of the NHL lockout and the impending return of hockey, we thought we would take another look at NHL shootouts.  (The last time around we looked at the ability of goalies and shooters and found that there was nothing but randomness.  That post is HERE.)   Our focus this time around is to look at whether or not a team goes first matters.  As most readers of this post will know, the home team has the choice of going first or second  […]



More on NHL Faceoffs

More on NHL Faceoffs

This past Spring, two students of Schuckers did undergraduate honors theses at St. Lawrence analyzing NHL data.  Tom Pasquali who is now a graduate student in Statistics at Villanova University focused on faceoffs while another student, Jim Curro (now a graduate student in Statistics at Iowa State), did some work on player ratings.  In the NHL faceoff analysis that is linked below, we used primarily Tom’s work but also a portion of Jim’s work.  We analyzed over 200,000 faceoffs over three NHL regular seasons (2008-9,  […]



Article on US Division I College Hockey Attendance

Article on US Division I College Hockey Attendance

Recently I got asked by the guys at WI to look at the factors that influence a college hockey teams attendance.  One of my current students at St. Lawrence knows the college hockey landscape quite well so I asked Zach Nelson to work on this project with me.   For that analysis we looked at a variety of season level metrics for all of the US Division I hockey programs over the last 10 years.  Most of those metrics focused on the things that teams  […]



NHL Shot Probability Maps

NHL Shot Probability Maps

I recently made some league-wide shot probability maps based upon the 2009-10 NHL regular seasons.  Each map is of a particular shot type and strength of the shooting team.  The strength of the shooting team is whether they were at even strength, on the power play or were shorthanded.  The maps are limited to shots taken in the offensive zone.  Most of the methodology is the same as what is found in the DIGR paper.  I did some non-parametric smoothing using the LOESS function in  […]



Chris Wells Named AHCA National Women’s Coach of the Year

Chris Wells Named AHCA National Women’s Coach of the Year

Statistical Sports Consulting Co-Founder and St. Lawrence University Head Coach Chris Wells was named American Hockey Coaches Association Division I Women’s Coach of the Year.  Chris guided his team to their first ever ECAC hockey tournament title by going 18-2-1 to end the regular season and the league tournament.  Through four seasons behind the Saints’ bench, Wells has compiled a record of 80-53-16 and two NCAA appearances.  He is a 1992 graduate of St. Lawrence and played four seasons for the men’s hockey team under  […]



MIT SSAC Hockey Panel (Video)

MIT SSAC Hockey Panel (Video)

Video of my appearance at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Hockey Panel is now available.  Another panelists include Brian Burke, (GM for the Toronto Maple Leafs), Peter Chiarelli (GM for the Boston Bruins), Mike Milbury (NHL TV Analyst), Kathryn Tappen (TV host) and Tony Amonte (former NHL All-Star).     http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=4550 Here is the first of my postscripts on that panel.   Tweet



MIT Sloan Postscript 1: Faceoffs

MIT Sloan Postscript 1: Faceoffs

I attended the 2012 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference last weekend in Boston. Additionally, I gave a poster and was invited to be part of the Hockey Analytics panel with Mike Milbury, Tony Amonte, Peter Chiarell and Brian Burke. NHL.com had a write-up of the panel here. I’m going to put together some posts/comments on that panel and some of the topics that came up. The first of these is the topic of faceoffs. I said in the panel that it takes an additional 100  […]



What’s Your Point? from THN

What’s Your Point? from THN

We did an analysis of the ‘extra point’ gained by NHL teams that lose in overtime (OT) or via the shootout (SO) for The Hockey News.  It has appeared in a recent issue under the heading “Just Win, Baby”.  I’ve uploaded a more complete document with the fuller analysis.  That document can be found here.   In this paper we analyze how the past six NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Races would have played out under a couple of alternative scoring systems.  The motivation for the  […]



Academic Minute on the NHL Shootout

Academic Minute on the NHL Shootout

Today’s Academic Minute which is a daily audio presentation on faculty research is about our research on the NHL Shootout.  Here is the audio link. This is old ground.  The conclusions are after the first five years of the NHL Shootout that there is no evidence that any goalie or shooter is significantly different from the average.  We presented this work as a poster at the 2010 NCSSORS Conference.  This work also appeared in ESPN the Magazine.  Link to a blog entry: http://statsportsconsulting.com/2010/12/21/nhl-shootout-as-crapshoot/ Link to  […]



DIGR in ESPN The Magazine

DIGR in ESPN The Magazine

  Peter Keating of ESPN the Magazine has a nice write-up about the Defense Independent Goalie Ratings (DIGR) in the latest issues. Article can be found here. Peter does a real nice job of summarizing the DIGR. Original paper for the DIGR can be found at this link. Tweet